There is less certainty around Ether and SOL, UK bank analyst says. Both Trump and Harris have changed their approach to crypto. This reduces Bitcoin's vulnerability to political instability.
First the good news.
According to Jeffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered Bank, the price of Bitcoin will triple to $200,000 by the end of 2025, regardless of who wins the US presidential election.
However, things are not looking good for the world's second and third largest cryptocurrencies – Ethereum and Solana.
“Broadly speaking, we think the Trump administration will be more supportive of the broader digital assets ecosystem than the Harris administration,” Kendrick wrote in a research note published Tuesday.
The research note came 28 days before the US election.
Many investors are speculating with the election whether US regulators will continue their crackdown on the crypto industry or usher in a new era for the asset class that will require its own bespoke rules.
The industry collapsed $174 million into lobbying efforts to support crypto-friendly candidates.
Trump vs. Harris
While the UK bank sees bitcoin rising no matter what, it has drawn contrasts between Trump, the former president and Republican nominee, and Vice President Harris.
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If Trump wins, Ether will jump nearly 300% to $10,000 by the end of next year, Kendrick said. A Harris win would see a less dramatic increase to $7,000, he predicted.
Although Kendrick said SOL could rise as much as 400% by the end of 2025 if Trump wins, he did not clarify how much Solana's token would be worth under a Harris administration.
Solana in the play
Kendrick said approval of a spot Solana exchange-traded fund similar to the bitcoin and ethereum funds launched this year would be more likely in 2025 under a Trump White House than under Harris.
So, too, is the replacement for Gary Gensler, the hard-charging chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Trump has also considered creating a bitcoin reserve, although he has not provided any details on how it would be funded or operated.
Harris has signaled that she will take a less aggressive approach to digital assets than President Joe Biden, but she has yet to make detailed proposals.
Harris places blockchain technology, along with quantum computing and AI, as a key source of innovation and economic growth. But crypto supporters are skeptical given the Biden administration's many enforcement actions and dismissed her position as “empty rhetoric.”
The state of play encouraged the “trump trade,” a bet that bitcoin would rise if he won.
For example, Bernstein said Bitcoin could reach a short-term high of $90,000 if Trump wins and fall to $40,000 if he loses.
In the long run, however, “Wikipedia will do well in both outcomes,” analysts at the Wall Street research firm wrote in a note on Wednesday.
Other assets, such as Ethereum and Solana, “have scope until the election and will take decisive direction only after the election, when there is more clarity on the caste of the SEC chair and regulatory aides in the White House,” the researchers continued.
Crypto market movers
Bitcoin is trading at $61,940, down 0.6% in the last 24 hours. Ethereum rose 0.3% to trade at $2,430.
What are we studying?
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Eric Johnson is the news editor for DL News. Got a tip? Email at [email protected].
Related TopicsUS ElectionBitcoinEthereumSolana
