Trump election odds are rising on crypto betting site Polymarket. Experts say some accounts on the site are distorting the picture. The market dynamics of Polymarket, a relatively small platform, are at play.
Polymarket whales are betting millions on who will win the US presidential election, distorting the prediction market.
Accounts named Fredi9999, Princess Caro, Michie and Theo4 have collectively spent nearly $24.7 million on a simple question: Who will win the 2024 presidential election?
Their “yes” bet on former President Donald Trump helped raise the cost to 61 cents, representing 61% odds of winning on Nov. 5.
Such bets have had a huge impact as few buyers and sellers trade on a relatively small platform, experts say.
Vice President Kamala Harris might be one A two point lead In national polls, but the crypto-based betting platform gives Trump a huge lead — Harris bets cost just 37 cents, representing a 37% chance of winning.
“It's about the depth of the market,” says Jake Dwyer, founder of venture fund The Factor Corp News. “If the market interest is in a particularly tight range, as soon as you want to buy a large amount, you will find that there are no quantity offers.”
Polymarket's breakout year was largely driven by interest in the US election. About 75% of the trading activity on the platform is related to those bets.
Its biggest election bet hosted more than $2 billion in cumulative trades, but that doesn't mean billions in volume are sloshing around today.
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Data from Dune Analytics refers to Polymarket's open interest — the sum of open trades in the market — is just over $200 million.
Users can buy “yes” or “no” shares for various candidates, including Michelle Obama, Vivek Ramaswamy and hip-hop artist Yeh.
As consumers rush to buy these shares, their prices also rise.
Prediction markets are tools for taking financial positions on outcomes that are difficult to capture with traditional tools. They reveal the current sentiment of market participants and that's it. They are no more “oracles of truth” than stocks, futures or anything. Another tool.
— Jake Chervinsky (@jchervinsky) October 16, 2024
Prediction markets are tools for taking financial positions on outcomes that are difficult to capture with traditional tools. They reveal the current sentiment of market participants and that's it. They are no more “oracles of truth” than stocks, futures or anything. Another tool.
— Jake Chervinsky (@jchervinsky) October 16, 2024
Polymarket whales are spending a lot of money in this particular market.
Freddy999For example, Trump currently owns more than $12.3 million in “yes” shares. Princess Caro $3.9 million on the same bet, Mitchie The bet was $3.5 million, and Theo4 Has $5 million.
These are not just their bets on elections. Fredi999, for example, has another $4.1 million on other pro-Republican bets.
Combined, the four accounts held nearly $35 million in pro-Republican businesses.
Due to low liquidity, this is enough to distort the sentiment surrounding one of the biggest elections in the last four years.
“This market is not yet deep at the traditional level, especially given the size of the event,” He tweeted Strategy lead in Hasu, Flashbots. “This is misleading. It assumes that Polymarket has 0 duplicate volume.
Liam Kelly is a DeFi Correspondent News. Got a tip? Email him [email protected].
