Bitcoin is up 10% this week to hit a three-month high. Despite the surge, Bitcoin has yet to regain $70,000. The question remains whether Bitcoin can set a new price peak this year.
Bitcoin price has increased by 10% in the last week.
It briefly traded above $68,200 on Friday — its highest price since late July.
It's a rocky climb. Over the past three months, the Bitcoin price chart has been like a heart monitor – up one week, up the next.
However, experts say that Bitcoin can be predicted for the end of the year.
Here are the clues they say reveal the bigger picture for Bitcoin this year.
election
Market observers once cited the upcoming US presidential election as a source of uncertainty for Bitcoin's price.
That has changed.
Alex Thorne, head of firmwide research at Galaxy Digital, wrote in a research note last week that a Donald Trump win or a Kamala Harris win would favor Bitcoin.
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“A Trump victory will be very positive for cryptos – especially altcoins, but we think a Harris administration will be equal or slightly better than a Biden administration.”
The thorn is not the only one.
The market also prices in those odds.
Republican nominee Trump has a commanding lead over Vice President Harris on crypto betting platform Polymarket.
Meanwhile, polls put Harris in a slight lead.
Matt Haugan, chief investment officer at crypto fund manager Bitwise, said investors' hesitancy over the election is leading to FOMO – the fear of missing out.
“There's a lot of dry powder next door,” Haugan wrote in a Blog This week. “As soon as we get any clarity [concerning the election]I think we will move forward quickly.”
Haugan predicted that any outcome, along with a Democrat sweep of the White House and Congress, would push bitcoin to a new peak above $80,000 this year.
Institutional interest
This week's Bitcoin price rally coincided with a “flomageddon” of nearly $1 billion in spot Bitcoin ETFs in just two days.
Alice Liu, head of research at crypto data provider CoinMarketCap, said the massive ETF inflows this week signaled a shift in institutional sentiment about bitcoin.
Liu said News Institutional players are starting to see Bitcoin as a strategic asset rather than a speculative asset.
“Large companies and asset managers are beginning to incorporate bitcoin into their portfolios or treasuries, which gives bitcoin more legitimacy and reduces its risk as a margin investment.”
Bitcoin ETFs expand Bitcoin's addressable market to new actors – wealth advisors.
Thorne estimates that $39 trillion is managed by wealth managers affiliated with banks and brokerages, and that some of that amount could flow into bitcoin through spot ETFs.
Wall Street majors Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley disclosed last summer that they held a combined $600 million in bitcoin ETFs.
'Santa Rally'
According to Thorne, Bitcoin's sideways price progress forms a strong basis for an upward move in the final quarter of the year.
This expectation is further supported by what David Brickell, head of international distribution at FRNT Financial, and Chris Mills, a former forex trader, are calling a “Goldilocks phase” for the US economy that could fuel the Bitcoin boom.
Brickell and Mills argue that Bitcoin could experience a “Santa Rally 'meltdown.'
Accidents
However, said Ryan Lee, chief analyst at BitGet Research News There are still some technical risks for Bitcoin.
“The threat of hacking and security breaches remains significant, as a successful attack on an exchange or wallet can lead to significant financial losses, shaking investor confidence.”
Over $1.1 billion was lost in hacks targeting crypto entities this year Dephyllomas data.
Other risks include geopolitical tensions and supply overhangs such as governments selling seized bitcoin.
This summer, Germany's $2.3 billion sale caused a 25% bitcoin price decline.
The US government has over $13 billion in seized bitcoin.
Osato Awan-Nomayo Our Nigeria based DeFi representative. He covers DeFi and technology. To share tips or information about articles, please contact him here [email protected].
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