The Bitcoin 'Trump Trade' Is Dead. Here's what it means for the price

Crypto has become a swing for Donald Trump. Analysts argue that a Republican election victory will push Bitcoin to $90,000. However, they are changing their tune.

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Crypto elections Crypto market movers What are we studying?

The sky is clear as US voters go to the polls on November 5.

Bernstein once painted the US election as a choice between Bitcoin reaching $90,000 under Donald Trump or the cryptocurrency falling to $30,000 under Kamala Harris.

A Wall Street research firm changed its tune, saying “momentum should continue regardless of election results.”

It was a dramatic face.

The 180 comes in the wake of the industry's $204 million in spending to fend off crypto-friendly politicians in Washington.

With both Republicans and Democrats now cheering for the sector, it could be argued that they got what they paid for.

Crypto elections

Money put into the industry's lobbying efforts — and more $1 billion Crypto gambling platform Polymarket places bets on elections – highlight the importance of the crypto sector in elections.

Under Joe Biden's tenure as president, Democrats have talked about their anti-crypto army; supported the “off-ramping of crypto companies” during the 2023 banking crisis; And Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler has endorsed anti-crypto campaigning, Bernstein noted last week.

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SEC data shows that around 158 cases have been brought against crypto-related entities and individuals. More than half of these were imposed under Gensler.

Crypto Crackdown Chart: Ben Weiss; Source: SEC Crypto Proceedings (Ben Weiss)

In Trump, crypto pundits saw an end to that campaign. The former president loudly threw his weight behind crypto. Among other things, he vowed to create a national bitcoin stockpile and send Gensler packing.

That created the foundation for Trump's trade. This summer, the narrative that his winning a second term in the White House would propel Bitcoin forward gained momentum.

Then Biden bowed out and identified Harris as his successor. She quickly outpaced Trump in the polls during her campaign. For some, like Lekker Capital co-founder Quinn Thompson, that means the end of Trump's trade.

They argue that other factors — such as the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates or conflict in the Middle East — will have a bigger impact than those who end up in the Oval Office.

Harris has said nothing about crypto in the first two months of her campaign, suggesting she could continue the Biden administration's crackdown on crypto.

That is changing. Last week, Harris said she supports the development of digital assets. While some industry pundits labeled the comments “empty words,” they were “somewhat relieved to see both candidates supported,” wrote Bernstein analysts Gautam Chugani, Mahika Sapra and Sanskar Chindalia.

However, they added, “Crypto market sentiment will remain strong in a Trump victory as it signals the start of fresh policy and broad regulatory support.”